◈Wall Street banks say Russia could retaliate against seizure
against their remaining interests in the country, according to people familiar with the matter. Russia could make life harder for foreign banks and target their local staff, an executive at one bank said. A second executive said his bank isn’t lobbying directly but is opposed in principle to confiscation by the EU.
The European Central Bank has warned that using interest rate proceeds from the assets could encourage official reserve holders to turn their back on the euro, the report said. The central bank believes international coordination will play a key role in mitigating the risks.
Read more: EU Blocks More Than €200 Billion in Russian Central Bank Assets
The paper identified significant legal obstacles to one of the two options the bloc is exploring: temporarily using liquid assets of Russia’s central bank — in other words, investing the assets and directing the proceeds to Ukraine.
The group preferred a second option: a so-called windfall contribution. Firms with Russian holdings that are generating large profits by investing them could be required to transfer a substantial amount to the EU. This could reduce legal risk for the bloc because the EU wouldn’t be managing them.
EU officials wrote that this model wouldn’t affect financial stability, would preserve the business models of the firms involved and would be fair in terms of tax. “It would not impact the legal situation of the assets,” they added.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday in a speech to the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London that the bloc will come up with a proposal for using those holdings before its summer break in mid-July.
‘Potential Magnitude’
More than half the assets are in cash and deposits, while a “substantial amount” of the remainder is in securities that will transform to cash as they mature in the next two to three years.
The commission informed the working group “of the potential magnitude of revenues” if these liquid assets were invested prudently.
EU officials considered actively managing the assets to generate returns that could be used to support Ukraine. But property rights would need to be considered, and there is a risk of negative returns that couldn’t be completely eliminated, the report said.
Overall, the paper describes the urgent need of pushing forward with the work and taking the lead internationally on the matter given that most central bank assets are in the EU. The bloc’s leaders are expected to take stock of the work done so far next week and ask that officials keep moving ahead on it, according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg.